Saturday, April 13, 2013
Apparently, the Bird flu in China has claimed a few more victims.
Now, usually, I think the fear of contamination or the fear of a plague are typically more dangerous than the outbreaks themselves. People who are at risk (with a health condition or decreased immune system) should probably take steps to prevent the flu; for the average healthy person, I have the opinion that a flu shot, bed rest, low-stress, exercise and hygiene should take care of the rest.
There have been a few virus-related scares lately, namely the SARs outbreak in Asia, and the Corona virus in the Middle east. Even the swine flu scare caused a jump in public attention.
I think I saw a few of the Bio-tech stocks related to Flu vaccines, or flu treatments, have received higher volume - of course, people are speculating that bird flu will bring money to their stocks.
Stocks like HEB, or NVAX, seem like they have had higher-volume days, with no extreme breakout patterns. I guess that the "realness" of a biotech stock are mainly within the stock's company's income and outlook. For Pharma stocks, typically the money comes in the form of partnerships and sales of Drugs. Everyone is waiting for the next lipitor.
Of course, with a Flu outbreak like H5N1 or similar, with only the most serious cases being reported, the level or risk is unknown until more cases occur. There might be many people infected with Bird flu, exhibiting no symptoms.
Secondly, the most dangerous part of a flu infection might be the 'Cytokine Storm'; in laymens terms, the chemicals in your immune system cause more harm than good. The proteins your own body manufactures in response to the flu may end up causing damage. In terms of a pharmaceutical defense to such problems, the dangers of immune-suppressive medications should be obvious: secondary infection and cancer risk.
Thirdly, in terms of a time-frame of a short-tem successful trade of such a pharmaceutical stock relies on an immediate purchase or immediate partnership with a speculative stock. The larger companies would have to pick a speculative drug product and make a partnership in a short-time span: two months or less.
This leaves a short window for any windfalls in the pharmaceutical market.
I feel as if most speculative buyers have been buying "shotgun" style; they buy small amounts of many stocks looking for a pattern.
Of course, once flu season is over, the flu-stock trends may be over.
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